Assessment of financial risk under geopolitical instability: strategies for accountants

Abstract

The escalation of geopolitical tensions significantly transforms the financial environment by increasing the likelihood of currency volatility, logistical disruptions, energy shocks, and regulatory changes. Under such conditions, the accounting system becomes a key instrument for identifying risks and supporting managerial decisions, which highlights the relevance of studying mechanisms for their measurement and mitigation. The purpose of this paper is to substantiate an integrated approach to managing risk-prone financial situations based on the combination of operational instruments, digital technologies, and environmentally oriented strategies. The research methodology relies on systemic, risk-oriented, and process-based approaches and incorporates scenario analysis, variance assessment, and analytical modelling. The results demonstrate that the combination of flexible budgeting, debt management, machine-learning algorithms, BI-visualization tools, and ESG indicators creates an effective multi-level system for responding to external threats. In addition, an algorithm for integrating operational, digital, and environmentally oriented strategies into financial risk management has been developed, reflecting the transition from risk identification to managerial decision-making and ensuring coordination of accounting functions under conditions of instability. The study shows that the accountant’s role extends beyond traditional accounting functions and involves forming the analytical foundation of a company’s financial resilience. The feasibility of implementing integrated strategies aimed at enhancing financial transparency and reducing regulatory and environmental risks is substantiated. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of a specific toolkit for accounting departments that can be used to improve budgeting processes, enhance the quality of analytics, and minimize risks associated with geopolitical turbulence. The findings provide a basis for further research focused on designing adaptive risk-management models that integrate accounting data, digital technologies, and environmental indicators.