Financial strategy of Ukrainian banking system in the context of Geopolitical Instability

Abstract

Relevance. The study examines the financial strategies of the Ukrainian banking system under conditions of geopolitical instability and wartime. Particular attention is paid to the institutional preconditions that enabled the banking sector to maintain stability during the full-scale invasion, including the banking reforms implemented in 2014 –2017 and their subsequent continuation. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze the strategic priorities of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and commercial banks under wartime conditions, identify the factors that contributed to the resilience of the banking system, and determine directions for its further development. Methodology. The study is based on a literature review, comparative analysis of scientific publications, regulatory documents, analytical reports, and statistical data of the NBU, as well as information from leading Ukrainian banks and international financial institutions. Results. The findings indicate that the resilience of the Ukrainian banking sector during the war was supported not only by wartime measures but also by reforms implemented before the full-scale invasion, which strengthened capitalization, transparency, and regulatory oversight. Commercial banks adapted their strategies through selective lending to strategically important sectors of the economy, cooperation with international financial institutions, and rapid digitalization of financial services. The analysis also demonstrates the recovery of lending activity, continued growth of banking assets, and the preservation of public confidence in the banking system. Particular attention is given to the strategic priorities of the NBU, including monetary and financial stability, support for economic recovery and European integration, development of modern financial services, and strengthening institutional capacity. Conclusions. The Ukrainian banking system has demonstrated a high level of resilience and adaptability under wartime conditions. The continuity of banking reforms, effective cooperation between the NBU and commercial banks, and support from international partners have contributed to maintaining financial stability. Further strengthening of macroprudential policy instruments, including countercyclical capital buffers, war-related stress testing, and dynamic liquidity management, may enhance the long-term resilience of the banking sector and support post-war recovery.