PREDICTIVE AND STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OF PERSONNEL MOTIVATION: ADAPTIVE MODELS IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

Purpose. To provide a theoretical justification and develop conceptual foundations for strategic personnel management of modern organizations based on predictive management. The study focuses on transforming reactive stimulation methods into preventive models capable of ensuring organizational antifragility amidst global uncertainty. Methods. The research is based on a systemic analysis that structures HR strategies by their level of adaptability. The methodology combines a data-driven approach and People Analytics to objectify management decisions. A key instrument is the author's «intelligent filtering» technology, which provides semantic analysis to identify latent destructive trends. Additionally, expert evaluation and monitoring methods were applied to diagnose employees' mental well-being. Results. During the study, the author's paradigm of predictive management was formulated as a strategy for proactive modeling of HR states. The main scientific result is the development of a Predictive Response Ecosystem that integrates three adaptive motivation models: resilient, cognitive-developmental, and purpose-driven. It is proven that management effectiveness is achieved by shifting the focus from stabilizing psycho-emotional resources to stimulating technological breakthroughs through digital tools and shared values. A strategic synergy matrix is proposed, visualizing the transition from reactive error correction to proactive design of future human capital. Conclusions. Implementing predictive models turns personnel management into a strategic asset capable of transforming external shocks into a resource for development. It is substantiated that aligning the personal aspirations of specialists with the strategic goals of an enterprise forms the intellectual and social antifragility of the HR management system. The practical significance of the work lies in developing specific recommendations for implementing mechanisms of predictive resilience, cross-functional learning, and value synchronization, which are fundamental conditions for the sustainable development and competitiveness of domestic enterprises during the period of Ukraine's post-war transformation.