Transformation of bank lending practices in Ukraine under conditions of high uncertainty: analysis of trends in 2022-2024

Abstract

The relevance of the topic is driven by the need for a thorough review of how the banking system is adapting to the extraordinary conditions, which tools have proven effective, and which changes in lending approaches are temporary and which have the potential to become sustainable components of the new banking model. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to comprehensively analyze the dynamics of bank lending in Ukraine in 2022-2024 in the context of significant uncertainty caused by military operations and economic destabilization, with a focus on identifying the adaptive mechanisms used by banking institutions, assessing the effectiveness of regulatory and government measures to stimulate lending activity, and formulating practical advice on how to improve the resilience of the credit sector in the context of crisis transformations. Methods. In the course of the study, a set of methods was used to provide an in-depth and comprehensive consideration of the dynamics of bank lending under conditions of uncertainty: a systematic approach, comparative analysis, economic and statistical analysis, inductive and deductive methods. Results. The article characterizes the theoretical foundations of bank lending under conditions of risk and uncertainty, analyzes modern approaches to managing loan portfolios in crisis economies. The influence of external and internal factors on the lending activity of banks in 2022-2024 is studied. The dynamics of lending in Ukraine is analyzed. The role of the National Bank of Ukraine in regulating credit policy during the war is determined. Changes in the quality of the banks' loan portfolio, the level of non-performing loans, the structure of provisions, the dynamics of write-offs and restructurings are assessed. Strategies for managing credit risks in times of war and instability are considered. The key regulatory decisions of the NBU on credit policy are identified, the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures. The main vectors of banks' adaptation to the conditions of high uncertainty are identified. Conclusions. It is established that in 2022-2024, the banking sector of Ukraine showed the ability to adapt to conditions of great uncertainty by reorienting to low-risk sectors, actively using government support programs and digital scoring tools.