Marketing decision-making under incomplete information: methodological foundations and tools for risk-oriented justification

Abstract

Effective marketing management under conditions of incomplete information involves minimizing the impact of uncertainty on the achievement of defined marketing objectives, as well as ensuring a more rational balance between the expected results of marketing activities and the level of risk. The effectiveness of this task largely depends on the enterprise's ability to make a justified choice of optimal marketing decisions among the available alternatives. The article substantiates an approach to marketing decision-making under conditions of incomplete information. It is argued that the increasing volatility of the marketing environment, the fragmentation of consumer behavior data, the uncertainty of marketing environment factors, and the intensification of competitive pressure require a transition from intuitive marketing decision-making to a formalized selection of the best alternatives. The aim of the is to systematize approaches to marketing decision-making under conditions of risk, uncertainty, and conflict interaction, as well as to substantiate an integrated algorithm for applying utility criteria, certainty equivalent, decision trees, sensitivity analysis, and simulation modeling in enterprise marketing management. The research methodology is based on the use of a systems approach, comparative analysis, logical generalization, elements of decision theory, utility theory, game theory, scenario analysis, tabular modeling, and theoretical synthesis in order to develop a comprehensive set of tools for justifying marketing decisions under conditions of incomplete information. The results of the study identify the conceptual distinction between marketing decisions made under conditions of risk, uncertainty, and active competitive opposition. It is substantiated that, when probabilistic information is available, it is appropriate to combine indicators of expected outcome, risk level, utility function, and certainty equivalent. In the absence of reliable probabilities of environmental states, the need to apply the Wald, Maximax, Hurwicz, Savage, and Laplace criteria is identified, taking into account the decision-maker's managerial attitude toward risk. For multi-stage marketing problems, the relevance of constructing a decision tree is justified, as it makes it possible to link the sequence of managerial actions with possible market development scenarios. It is emphasized that sensitivity analysis enables the identification of critical factors of a marketing project, while simulation modeling makes it possible to assess the distribution of possible outcomes under the simultaneous influence of several random factors. An approach to managing marketing decisions under conditions of risk and incomplete information is developed, which can be used when choosing a new product launch strategy, determining the marketing communications budget, assessing the feasibility of price changes, planning sales, and shaping the enterprise's competitive response. Prospects for further research are related to the empirical testing of the proposed approach at trade enterprises, the use of digital technologies to support marketing decision-making, and the assessment of marketing risks.