Methodological tools for assessing the sustainability of social projects based on public-private partnerships

Abstract

Abstract: The present study is devoted to the scientific justification and development of methodological tools for the integrated assessment of the overall socio-economic effect of social projects implemented in the format of public-private partnerships. The primary objective is to develop a quantitative mechanism that can differentially assess the contribution of each partner to the long-term sustainability of the project, encompassing both financial viability and social value. The methodological basis of the work is predicated on the principles of a systematic approach, economic and mathematical modelling, and the method of deterministic factor analysis. To ensure a high level of accuracy in the breakdown of the impact of factors on the resulting indicator, the process of integral differentiation is employed. This method guarantees a complete distribution of the total change in effect among factors, thereby eliminating the problem of integral residue, in contrast to classical chain substitution methods. The study is based on the development of a multiplicative model, Eзаг = Nб · Рсоц · Eфін, where Eзаг is an integral indicator formed based on three key factors: scale, social impact effectiveness, and financial stability. The methodology involves the systematic decomposition of these macro-factors into micro-level sub-factors, which are the direct levers of management for public and private partners. An original multiplicative model has been developed to calculate the overall socio-economic effect, which successfully integrates monetised non-financial (social) indicators with financial and economic ones. The introduction of integral differentiation enables the accurate measurement of the quantitative impact of changes in project scale, social impact effectiveness, and financial stability on the final integral result. A precise mechanism has been developed for translating the results of quantitative factor analysis into management decisions. This mechanism involves identifying the specific sub-factor (e.g., public funding, management quality, or cost price) that caused the deviation, thereby ensuring a clear division of responsibility. The developed methodological toolkit serves as a reliable and objective diagnostic tool for target management. The application facilitates the expeditious identification of deviations from planned indicators by project management and regulatory authorities, thus enabling the formulation of suitable corrective measures. This has been demonstrated to increase the transparency of social private and public partnership implementation, optimise the use of budget resources, and ensure the long-term viability of socially significant initiatives. It is recommended that future research be directed towards the development of stochastic factor models with a view to accounting for uncertainty.