Big Data analytics in forecasting the scale of the shadow economy and its impact on macrofinancial stability

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the growing scale of the shadow economy, which creates significant challenges for macro-financial stability through lost tax revenues, increased debt burden, inflationary pressure, and the weakening of monetary policy effectiveness. In current conditions, traditional statistical methods do not provide sufficient accuracy in assessing hidden processes, which increases the need for new forecasting and monitoring tools. The purpose of the article is to clarify the potential of applying big data analytics tools for forecasting the scale of the shadow economy and identifying its impact on key indicators of macro-financial stability. The research methodology is based on a combination of systemic and comparative approaches with the use of econometric modeling, analysis of macroeconomic imbalances, big data processing technologies, and machine learning algorithms. The study analyzes the practice of applying digital analytics in the EU countries, the United Kingdom and Ukraine, which made it possible to generalize the experience of integrating heterogeneous data sources into economic governance processes. Results . The study identified key channels through which the shadow economy affects macro-financial stability, including fiscal, debt, monetary, and external economic channels. It was found that the use of big data increases the objectivity of shadow sector assessments, enables the timely detection of anomalies in financial and tax flows, and forms the basis for a more effective de-shadowing policy. Conclusions. The findings confirm that the use of big data in assessing the shadow economy contributes to the expansion of the tax base, reduction of debt pressure, mitigation of inflationary imbalances, and enhancement of monetary policy effectiveness. It is proven that reducing the scale of the shadow sector is a necessary condition for strengthening the resilience of the financial system and increasing trust in economic institutions. Future research should focus on the development of adaptive forecasting models based on the combination of classical macroeconomic indicators and digital traces, the study of the cryptocurrency sector’s impact on financial security, and the formation of mechanisms for international coordination of de-shadowing policies.