Development of a financial sustainability model for an enterprise under volatile currency market conditions

Abstract

Financial stability of an enterprise is defined as the ability to maintain efficient operations and adapt to changes in macroeconomic conditions, particularly fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, which create risks for cash flows and affect budget planning, capital structure, and the efficiency of investment decisions. The рurpose of the study is to develop a comprehensive financial resilience model that minimizes the negative impact of currency instability, enhances the adaptability of the financial system, and ensures optimization of financial performance in both the short and long term. To achieve this goal, methods of financial analysis, forecasting of currency risks using statistical models, scenario modeling of alternative development options, and integration of financial resilience indicators into a unified management system were applied. The results indicate that a multi-level model, which comprehensively considers liquidity, solvency, financial flexibility, capital structure, and the enterprise’s risk profile, enables timely identification of critical points of financial pressure, prediction of potential losses from exchange rate fluctuations, assessment of currency risk impacts on operational and investment activities, and formulation of effective response strategies, including optimization of financial resources, diversification of currency flows, and planning of anti-crisis measures. Conclusions.The study confirms the relevance of a comprehensive approach to constructing financial resilience models and their integration into strategic planning systems. The practical significance of the model lies in its ability to forecast financial outcomes, assess risks, support informed managerial decision-making, and develop strategies that ensure sustainable enterprise growth and preservation of financial resources. Additionally, the model facilitates the timely detection of potential threats and operational adjustment of financial policies, enhancing management efficiency under unstable macroeconomic conditions.