Identification of key external threats in the supply and sales policy management system of toy wholesale enterprises

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to identify and analytically substantiate key external threats that affect the supply and sales policy management system of toy wholesale enterprises in Ukraine in conditions of economic instability, martial law and structural transformation of the consumer market. The object of the study is the supply and sales policy system of enterprises engaged in wholesale trade of toys in Ukraine. The article identifies and systematizes key external threats that form challenges for the supply and sales policy management system of toy wholesale enterprises in Ukraine. It is proven that the constant reduction in the number of children and conscript age groups indicates that the toy market is unlikely to return to pre-war volumes in the near future. It is substantiated that the modern realities of the functioning of wholesale trade enterprises are characterized by economic instability, significant inflationary pressure, disruptions in supply chains, a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, prolonged martial law, a decrease in demand for toys and cyberattacks. It is proven that all these threats have a direct impact on the decrease in sales volumes, a decrease in the number of active enterprises, a reduction in the number of employees and a weakening of the competitive position of the industry. In the process of the study, statistical changes for 2019–2023 were characterized, which confirm the relevance of the identified threats. It was established that over five years the number of toy wholesale trade enterprises decreased by more than 34%, and the number of employees in the industry by more than 40%. The impact of each threat on key production and sales indicators is substantiated, which made it possible to draw conclusions about the need to adapt management decisions to new external conditions.