Model for forecasting the effectiveness of eco-branding of FMCG enterprises under digitalization

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to substantiate a conceptual and methodological model for forecasting the effectiveness of eco-branding of FMCG enterprises under the conditions of digitalization of consumer behavior. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing role of environmental product characteristics, sustainable packaging, environmental labelling, transparent communication and responsible brand positioning in shaping consumer perception of fast-moving consumer goods brands. At the same time, environmental claims in marketing practice are often fragmented, insufficiently supported by evidence and weakly connected with consumer trust, purchase intention, repeat purchase and loyalty. This creates the need for a model that can explain not only separate eco-branding tools, but also the conditions under which these tools may generate a positive behavioral response. Methods. The methodological basis of the study includes a systematic approach, analysis and synthesis of scientific literature, structural and logical generalization, comparison of approaches to environmentally oriented marketing and conceptual modelling. These methods made it possible to systematize the factors that influence consumer perception of eco-branding, clarify the relationship between evidence of environmental claims, online support, trust in an eco-brand and greenwashing risk, and develop an authorial logic for preliminary assessment of the forecasted effectiveness of eco-branding. Results. The article systematizes the key factors that determine the potential effectiveness of eco-branding of FMCG enterprises: visibility and clarity of the eco-signal, evidence of environmental claims, online support, trust-based behavioral potential and greenwashing risk. A structural and logical model is proposed in which the brand eco-signal passes through the filter of visibility and clarity, the filter of evidence and transparency, and is then strengthened or weakened by the digital multiplier. It is substantiated that the digital environment has a dual effect: in the case of evidence-based environmental claims, it can strengthen trust in the eco-brand, perceived ecological value and positive brand attitude; in the case of weak or unsupported claims, it can accelerate greenwashing perception, skepticism and distrust. A compact calculation approach is proposed for preliminary assessment of forecasted eco-branding effectiveness, including basic effectiveness, the digital multiplier and the final forecasted effectiveness index. Conclusions. The study substantiates that the effectiveness of eco-branding of FMCG enterprises depends not only on the presence of sustainable packaging, environmental labelling or green advertising, but also on the ability of these tools to be visible, understandable, evidence-based and supported by online communication. The scientific novelty of the approach lies in interpreting digitalization not only as a communication channel, but as a multiplier that can change the direction of the influence of eco-branding on consumers. The practical value of the model lies in its possible use by FMCG marketers for preliminary diagnosis of the strengths and weaknesses of eco-branding before launching or adjusting packaging, communication campaigns or digital content.