FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE STATE IN THE CONTEXT OF WARTIME CHALLENGES: FISCAL RISKS AND DIRECTIONS FOR THEIR MINIMIZATION

Abstract

The article examines the financial security of the state in the context of wartime challenges, focusing on the identification of fiscal risks and the justification of priority directions for their minimization. The relevance of the research is determined by the fact that a full-scale war radically changes the conditions for the functioning of public finance, increases pressure on the budget system, intensifies the need to finance defense and social expenditures, and deepens the dependence of the state on external financial support. The purpose of the article is to deepen the theoretical and applied foundations of the study of financial security under wartime conditions, to systematize the main fiscal risks, and to substantiate instruments for strengthening the resilience of public finance. The study clarifies that financial security in wartime should be considered not only as a state of protection of the financial system, but also as the ability of the state to mobilize, distribute and use financial resources effectively in order to maintain national resilience, defense capability, social stability and macroeconomic balance. The main fiscal risks affecting Ukraine's financial security are identified, including the growth of the budget deficit, the increase in public debt, instability of tax revenues, narrowing of the tax base, inflationary and currency pressures, social expenditure risks, institutional risks and dependence on international financial assistance. A conceptual model for ensuring Ukraine's financial security under wartime challenges is proposed. The model reflects the logical relationship between wartime threats, fiscal risks, mechanisms for their minimization and expected results for the financial system. It is substantiated that the minimization of fiscal risks requires a comprehensive approach combining short-term anti-crisis measures with long-term institutional reforms. Particular attention is paid to improving tax administration, strengthening medium-term budget planning, increasing the efficiency of public expenditures, ensuring debt sustainability, digitalizing financial control, enhancing transparency in the use of public funds and improving the management of international financial assistance. The practical significance of the research lies in the substantiation of directions for strengthening the fiscal capacity of the state and creating financial prerequisites for Ukraine's post-war recovery. The article concludes that financial security under wartime conditions is a strategic factor of national security and a prerequisite for preserving the economic viability of the state.