Stress Testing of Retail Supply Chains under Wartime Risks: Scenario-Based Resilience Models and Recovery Indicators

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to ensure the resilience of retail supply chains under wartime risks caused by armed aggression, the destruction of logistics infrastructure, instability of transport routes, and the high level of uncertainty within the business environment. The current challenges facing the operation of the retail sector in Ukraine necessitate the implementation of adaptive approaches to risk management, scenario planning, and the assessment of supply chains’ capacity for rapid recovery after disruptive impacts. The aim of the study is to develop the conceptual foundations for stress testing retail supply chains and to formulate scenario-based models for assessing their resilience under wartime threats.

The methodological framework of the research is based on general scientific and specialised methods of analysis, including scenario modelling, risk classification, comparative analysis, systematisation, and logical generalisation. The information base of the study comprises contemporary scientific publications and analytical materials from 2019-2025 devoted to risk management, supply chain resilience, and the functioning of retail trade under crisis conditions and military conflicts.

As a result of the research, a classification of wartime supply chain risks was developed, encompassing geopolitical, logistical, financial and economic, human resource, informational, and regulatory risks. Scenario-based resilience models for Ukrainian retail companies (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios) were designed, along with the corresponding strategic business response models. A system of indicators for assessing the level of resilience and the effectiveness of supply chain recovery was proposed, including Time to Recovery (TTR), Time to Survive (TTS), recovery rate, post-disruption order fulfilment rate, and an integrated resilience index.

The study substantiates the feasibility of applying supply diversification strategies, creating buffer inventories, localising the resource base, restructuring logistics routes, and implementing digital solutions to enhance the transparency and adaptability of supply chains. The obtained results confirm the effectiveness of applying the scenario-based approach and stress testing as instruments for increasing the resilience of retail businesses, minimising losses, and accelerating recovery under wartime and other extreme threats.