Securities market of Ukraine: analysis of the current state and prospects assessment

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to study the current state of the securities market of Ukraine, trends, features of its functioning and assessment of prospects for further development in the context of the transformation of the financial system. Research methods: scientific generalization, statistical, graphical, econometric modeling. The paper identifies the main factors influencing the development of the securities market. The key role belongs to economic and political factors that shape the investment environment. It is shown that all of these factors have an impact on the functioning of the market, but differ in the degree and nature of action. The mechanism of formation of demand and supply in the market is studied. It is described that their interaction determines the equilibrium parameters of the market, in particular the price and volume of financial instruments. In the process of analysis, the choice of key indicators of the development of the securities market is justified, in particular the volume of trading in financial instruments, the volume of transactions with domestic government bonds and the general level of market activity. The close correlation between the indicators is established, that confirms their representativeness for further modeling. The construction of an econometric model allowes to determine the nature and strength of the influence of individual factors on the level of stock market activity. It was prooved that the most adequate model is one that takes into account the dependence on the volume of transactions with government bonds, which is confirmed by high values of the coefficient of determination and statistical significance. The expediency of taking into account time lags when analyzing dynamic processes in the market is noted. The results of the forecast analysis showed that the most effective strategy is a comprehensive stimulation of indicators of the volume of trading in financial instruments and transactions with government bonds. The recommendations provided will contribute to increasing the overall level of activity and efficiency of the stock market.