Scenario modeling of financial stability of enterprises in the post-crisis period

Abstract

The study examines ensuring financial stability of enterprises during the recovery period following crisis shocks, characterized by economic instability, limited resources, and increased uncertainty. The intensified impact of external and internal factors necessitates the use of tools capable of accounting for alternative development scenarios and supporting the justification of managerial decisions.

The aim is to develop a methodological framework for reproducing the financial condition of an enterprise, taking into account variable changes of key indicators in a dynamic environment.

Methods include system analysis, economic-mathematical formalization, forecasting, simulation calculations, and comparative evaluation of alternative developments. The analytical base combines quantitative indicators with qualitative characteristics of operations, allowing a comprehensive assessment of environmental factors influencing enterprise performance.

Results reflect the development of a framework that enables identification of possible enterprise states under different scenarios, assessment of financial equilibrium, detection of high-risk areas, and forecasting consequences of managerial interventions. The approach provides the formation of alternative functional trajectories considering the dynamics of income, expenses, liquidity, solvency, and capital structure. The obtained outcomes enhance the accuracy of financial planning, consistency of managerial actions, and the ability to respond promptly to changes in the economic environment.

Conclusions confirm the feasibility of applying the proposed framework to support decision-making processes in financial management. Practical significance lies in strengthening operational stability, improving resource efficiency, and ensuring sustainable development under conditions of uncertainty.