Development of an integral indicator of financial stability of industrial enterprises as a tool for early crisis warning

Abstract

The relevance of the study is driven by the growing need to develop effective tools for assessing the financial condition of industrial enterprises under conditions of economic instability, transformation of financial flows, and increasing business risks. The complexity of modern financial processes necessitates a shift from fragmented analysis of individual ratios to comprehensive assessment approaches that consider the interrelationships between key parameters of capital structure, liquidity, and financial flexibility of enterprises. The aim of the study is to develop and test an integral indicator of financial stability of industrial enterprises, which provides a generalized assessment of their financial condition and can be used as a tool for early identification of crisis phenomena. The methodological framework of the study is based on general scientific and special methods of economic analysis, including financial ratio analysis, comparative analysis, normalization of indicators using the min-max method, and aggregation with equal weighting coefficients. The information base includes financial statements of industrial enterprises in Ukraine, as well as official statistical data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. As a result of the study, a system of financial stability indicators was developed, classified according to their impact on financial condition, and integrated into a unified composite indicator. A scale for interpreting the values of the integral indicator was proposed, enabling differentiation of enterprises by the level of financial stability. The empirical testing of the methodology revealed significant differences in the financial condition of enterprises, reflected in variations in autonomy, debt burden, and availability of working capital. The results confirm the feasibility of applying an integral approach to generalize the effects of diverse financial indicators and enhance the analytical validity of managerial decision-making. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a unified methodological approach to constructing an integral indicator that integrates heterogeneous financial metrics into a single analytical framework for early crisis detection.