Formation of value added at factor cost in Ukraine in 2015–2023 as an indicator of structural shifts in the economy

Abstract

Abstract. The article presents a structural analysis of value added at factor cost of business entities in Ukraine for the period 2015–2023. Based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the dynamics and structure of value added were examined across enterprise size categories (large, medium, small, micro), major types of economic activity, and employee count groups. It was established that the total volume of value added increased 3.2 times during the study period — from UAH 1,396.3 billion in 2015 to UAH 4,467.1 billion in 2023 — although this growth was uneven and interrupted by crisis episodes, including the COVID-19 pandemic slowdown in 2020 and an absolute decline of 17.1% in 2022 following the full-scale invasion. A trend toward decreasing the share of large enterprises from 41.9% in 2015 to 29.5% in 2023 was identified, accompanied by a simultaneous increase in the share of medium enterprises to 42.3%, indicating a gradual diversification of the business sector and demonopolization of the value creation structure. Sectoral shifts were investigated, including a rapid growth in the share of wholesale and retail trade from 23.1% to 38.4% and a decline in industry's share from 35.4% to 28.2%, pointing to the continuation of a deindustrialization trend. The differentiated impact of the full-scale invasion in 2022 on various sectors was analyzed in detail, with agriculture (–47.2%) and construction (–46.6%) suffering the greatest losses, while wholesale and retail trade continued to grow (+23.8%), demonstrating remarkable resilience. It is argued that structural shifts in value added formation reflect deep transformations in the national economy and can serve as analytical indicators for management decision-making regarding post-war recovery strategies at both macro and micro levels.