Scientific approach to risk assessment in enterprise cash flow management under crisis conditions

Abstract

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to develop a scientifically grounded approach to assessing risks in managing enterprise financial flows under crisis phenomena, based on a systematic analysis of theoretical foundations, bibliometric data, and risk management standards. The article applies a systemic approach to the analysis of the categories “cash flows” and “financial flows” using comparative methods, semantic analysis, and bibliometric examination of publications from the Scopus database. To construct the conceptual model for risk assessment, the standards of ISO 31000:2018 and the principles of COSO ERM were utilized. A three-level analysis structure is proposed, encompassing informational, analytical-diagnostic, and managerial blocks with mandatory feedback loops. It was established that financial flows represent a broader economic category compared to cash flows: they encompass not only the movement of monetary funds but also capital, financial instruments, and obligations in both monetary and non-monetary forms, performing distributive, redistributive, control, and reproductive functions. The bibliometric analysis identified four main research clusters within the key concepts: monitoring macroeconomic uncertainty factors, controlling operational business performance indicators, mathematical modeling of risks, and implementation of digital technologies for proactive management. A scientific approach to risk assessment is proposed, structured into three blocks: informational (detection of imbalances, formation of a data base), diagnostic (identification, classification, and quantitative-qualitative risk evaluation, construction of a risk profile), and managerial (development of anti-crisis strategies, monitoring the effectiveness of measures). The developed approach ensures a comprehensive assessment of risks in managing financial flows under conditions of high volatility and crisis phenomena, facilitating the transition from reactive to proactive management.