Analysis of the Performance of Domestic IT Enterprises under Wartime Conditions

Abstract

Abstract. The purpose of the article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the development dynamics of Ukraine’s IT sector in 2021–2024, taking into account preliminary results for 2025, to assess its contribution to the national economy and to outline key risks and preconditions for further growth. The research methodology is based on statistical analysis of official data from the National Bank of Ukraine and the State Statistics Service, as well as industry reports of professional associations, investment guides, and specialized analytical reviews. Time-series comparison, structural and dynamic analysis, and elements of a scenario approach are applied to interpret the impact of wartime and global factors on the functioning of the information technology industry. The results show that in the pre-crisis period and at the onset of the full-scale war, the IT industry remained one of the main drivers of foreign currency inflows, ensuring stable growth in exports of computer services and an increase in the number of highly qualified specialists. After the record year 2022, a moderate decline in export volumes and a slowdown in market expansion were recorded, driven by a combination of internal and external shocks: security risks, global tech correction, migration of part of companies and specialists, as well as regulatory uncertainty. At the same time, the relative share of the IT industry in the structure of service exports and GDP increased, which indicates its system-forming role for the national economy. A trend has been identified towards a gradual shift from a predominantly service-oriented model to a more diversified structure, with the strengthening of product, start-up and defense-tech segments, the expansion of innovation infrastructure, and the growing contribution of entrepreneurial initiatives. The conclusions substantiate that the future prospects of the information technology sector depend on the ability to minimize security and regulatory risks, preserve human capital, expand access to investment for innovative projects, and diversify export markets. The importance of improving state support instruments, ensuring stability of tax regimes, and developing infrastructure capable of guaranteeing continuity of service provision under crisis conditions is emphasized. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in their potential use for shaping sectoral policy, strategic planning of IT companies’ activities, as well as for further academic studies of the transformation of a knowledge- and technology-based economy under prolonged shocks.