Risk management and tariff policy in the activities of JSC Ukrzaliznytsia: challenges, strategic priorities, and financial stability

Abstract

The article analyzes the current challenges of risk management in Ukrainian rail transport under martial law and in preparation for infrastructure restoration. It shows that JSC Ukrzaliznytsia operates in a complex risk environment, combining financial, operational, technical, and security threats, which requires a systematic update of risk management approaches. An assessment of internal risks was conducted, including: funding shortfalls, significant wear and tear on fixed assets, imbalance between passenger and freight segments, and unpredictability of tariff policy. It was emphasized that chronic losses in passenger transportation, which in recent years have amounted to about UAH 25 billion annually, create a long-term financial imbalance and require improvement of state compensation mechanisms. The purpose of the study is to identify priority areas for improving Ukrzaliznytsia's risk management system, taking into account military threats, institutional changes, and strategic guidelines for the development of the railway industry. The research methods include analysis of regulatory and strategic documents, a systematic approach, structural and logical generalization, comparative analysis of internal and external risks, and analysis of open data from financial and operational reports. The study examines external risks associated with military attacks on critical railway facilities, which threaten to disrupt logistics flows and necessitate stable sources of funding for restoration. Operational risk factors are analyzed: reduction of the freight base, competition from road transport, underutilization of certain sections of the network, and increased infrastructure maintenance costs. The provisions of Ukraine's National Transport Strategy until 2030 are summarized, in particular the areas of infrastructure modernization, development of European gauge railways, digitization of management, and implementation of ERTMS, which determine the strategic guidelines for risk management. The conclusions justify that improving the effectiveness of the risk management system is possible provided that investments in modernization, development of digital technologies, improvement of tariff policy, strengthening of corporate governance, and harmonization of the regulatory framework with EU requirements are combined. The implementation of these measures will ensure the sustainability, reliability, and competitiveness of Ukraine's rail transport in the medium term.