Conceptual model of integrated management of risks and deviations in projects in an unstable environment

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to theoretically substantiate the conceptual model of integrated management of risks and deviations in projects implemented in an unstable external environment. The object of the study is project management processes, within which risks arise, deviations from the plan are formed and corrective management decisions are made during the project life cycle. The article considers the conceptual principles of integrated management of risks and deviations in projects in an unstable environment, when external and internal factors change rapidly, and separate procedures for risk management and performance control form late signals for management. The content of risk is defined as a manifestation of uncertainty that may affect the project objectives, and the content of deviation is defined as the difference between planned and actual parameters in terms of time, budget, scope of work, quality, resources and expected value of the result. A cause-and-effect relationship is established between risk drivers, risk events, their consequences and the occurrence of deviations, which allows combining predictive and control procedures in a single management loop. The structural blocks of the model are characterized, which include context formation, identification of risks and sources of deviations, prioritization by probability and impact, response planning, and change management taking into account interdependencies between work, resources and supply. It is established that in an unstable external environment, small failures have a cascading effect, therefore the model combines early warning indicators, scenario planning, time and budget reserves and rules for choosing compromises between time, cost, quality and value of the result. The role of source classification of deviations is established, which supports the accumulation of lessons, standardization of corrective actions and reduction of recurring losses in subsequent projects. The organizational prerequisites for implementation are characterized, which include the division of responsibility between risk owners and indicator owners, regular reviews, transparent communication rules and maintaining a single project dashboard.